Goose the Blog 2.0

Last week, salon.com polled it's readers to find out who they thought would win the Oscars last night. They had 3238 responses, and the readers (in aggregate) correctly picked the winners of 13 out of 14 awards. (If you ask me, I think they picked 14 out of 14 winners, because Murray should have won best actor, not Penn. The Academy made the mistake, not the readers!)

Below is a list of the actual winners and the most popular salon pick.

Best picture: "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"
Salon reader pick:
71.19% "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"

Actor in a leading role: Sean Penn in "Mystic River"
Salon reader pick:
46.20% Bill Murray in "Lost in Translation"

Actress in a leading role: Charlize Theron in "Monster"
Salon reader pick:
59.96% Charlize Theron in "Monster"

Actor in a supporting role: Tim Robbins in "Mystic River"
Salon reader pick:
53.13% Tim Robbins in "Mystic River"

Actress in a supporting role: Renée Zellweger in "Cold Mountain"
Salon reader pick:
38.10% Renée Zellweger in "Cold Mountain"

Animated feature film: "Finding Nemo"
Salon reader pick:
73.38% "Finding Nemo"

Art direction: "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"
Salon reader pick:
73.70% "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"

Cinematography:"Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World"
Salon reader pick:
39.22% "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World"

Directing: Peter Jackson, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"
Salon reader pick:
68.50% "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"

Documentary feature: "The Fog of War"
Salon reader pick:
42.52% "The Fog of War"

Foreign language film: "The Barbarian Invasions"
Salon reader pick:
54.92% "The Barbarian Invasions"

Visual effects: "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"
Salon reader pick:
87.87% "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"

Adapted Screenplay: Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson,"The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"
Salon reader pick:
42.80% "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"

Original Screenplay: Sofia Coppola, "Lost in Translation"
Salon reader pick:
71.72% "Lost in Translation"

Anyway, the idea that a bunch of dummies could correctly predict the outcome of an event over which they have no control reminded me of the terrorist futures market that the Pentagon wanted to try out. I guess these things really can work, although picking Oscar winners isn't troubled by the dubious ethics of picking terrorism targets. Cool.